Robb's Weather News...

Forecasters See Above Average Hurricane Season in 2005

Mon, 9 May 2005 22:23:18 GMT

Forecasters See Above Average Hurricane Season in 2005

William Gray of Colorado State University began garnering media attentions for his hurricane season forecasts in 1999. Since then hurricane forecasting has grown into what Florida State University climatologist James Elsner has wryly labeled a cottage industry.

Gray issues his forecast in December and then updates it in April, May, August, September and October. The Tropical System Risk climatologists from University College in London follow a similar timetable.

Both are predicting an above average year. Gray forecasts 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major. TSR is calling for 14 named storms and eight hurricanes, 4 of them major. Since 1950 10 named storms and six hurricanes, three of them major, have been the norm. One to two hurricanes a year on average make landfall in the United States. A major storm hits the United States on average once every three years.

Gray also issues landfall probability predictions. In April he calculated the chance that Florida or the U.S. East Coast will be hit by at least one intense hurricane, with winds over 110 mph, at 53 percent. The long-term average is 31 percent.

The amount of storms generated in a season appears to correlate with El Nino, a warm ocean current in the Pacific Ocean that expands from Asia toward South America in some years and recedes in others. In years when El Nino conditions exist off the coast of South America, the warm waters create upper level winds that inhibit tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

In late April, the scientists at University College announced that they had created a model that looks at broader wind patterns and would have accurately predicted last seasons unprecedented activity, when five hurricanes made landfall in the United States and four Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan hit Florida in just six weeks. But their prediction for the 2005 season will not be issued until August, just ahead of the most active part of the hurricane season.

Meanwhile, in an interesting twist to the hurricane-season forecasting puzzle, Elsner has noted that since 1950 the chances of being hit by landfalling hurricane in Florida are actually slightly higher in years of average tropical activity than in years of above average activity. This suggests that the El Nino conditions that keep a season merely average may be accompanied by steering currents in the Atlantic that are more likely to steer the storms that do form toward the Southern U.S. That makes the record-breaking 2004 hurricane season, which featured an above average 14 storms, seem even more anomalous.

Then there is the lesson of Hurricane Andrew, one of the most devastating storms in U.S. history. Andrew raged ashore in August 1992 a year that produced just four named tropical storms.

Ultimately the greatest value in all these forecasts may be that they raise public awareness about the dangers of the upcoming hurricane season.

You cant outguess Mother Nature, says Max Mayfield, Director of the National Hurricane Center Not at the beginning of hurricane season, and especially not when a storm is bearing down on you. If you live in or near a coastal area or in an area prone to flooding from a hurricane or tropical system, you are at risk. Now is the time to get prepared.

More information:
http://hurricanesafety.org";>The National Hurricane Survival Initiative

Day 4 - River Floods

Thu, 10 Mar 2005 03:24:26 GMT

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
728 AM EST THU MAR 10 2005

...PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK...

THIS IS THE FOURTH OF A FIVE PART SERIES ON SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
WHICH WILL RUN EACH DAY DURING PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY'S
HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK. HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK
RUNS FROM MARCH 6TH THROUGH MARCH 12TH.

...RIVER FLOODING AND RIVER FLOOD SAFETY...

PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY BOTH HAVE SCENIC RIVER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...ON OCCASION...THESE RIVERS CAN BECOME DESTRUCTIVE...AND
EVEN DEADLY. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODS HAVE OCCURRED IN BOTH STATES
THROUGHOUT THE YEARS, MOST NOTABLY IN 1936...1972...1996...1999...AND
MOST RECENTLY...LAST YEAR...2004...DUE TO THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
FROM HURRICANES IVAN AND JEANNE.

WHAT CAUSES RIVER FLOODS?
GENERALLY...PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOMETIMES
COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE SNOWMELT...OVER A LARGE AREAS WILL CAUSE
THE RIVERS TO SWELL AND OCCASIONALLY FLOOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE IN LATE WINTER AND SPRING WHEN THE SNOWPACK BEGINS TO MELT.
IF THE SNOW MELTS QUICKLY AND IS COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...
MAJOR FLOODING COULD RESULT SUCH AS THE FLOODS THAT OCCURRED
IN JANUARY 1996. MASSIVE FLOODING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SELDOM
RESULTS FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...GENERALLY RAIN IS NEEDED AS WELL.

RIVER FLOODING CAN RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PROPERTY DAMAGE AND MAY
RESULT IN LOSS OF LIFE. MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE DEATHS
ASSOCIATED WITH FLOODING ARE AUTOMOBILE RELATED.

RIVERS CAN FLOOD ANYTIME OF THE YEAR. IN WINTER AND EARLY
SPRING...RAPID MELTING OF A DEEP SNOWPACK WITH HEAVY RAIN CAN BE THE
CULPRIT. IN SUMMER...COMPLEXES OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAN
CAUSE THE RIVERS TO FLOOD. IN LATE SUMMER AND FALL...TROPICAL STORMS
AND HURRICANES ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING.

WHAT DOES A FLOOD WATCH MEAN?
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR...NOT
THAT RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING. THE WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED FOR
ONE OR MORE POINTS ALONG THE RIVER COUNTIES AT A TIME...AND IDEALLY
IS ISSUED 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THIS WAY YOU
WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO PREPARE.

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO WHEN A FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED?
GO ABOUT YOUR NORMAL ACTIVITIES...BUT MAKE PERIODIC CHECKS OF NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS. GET READY TO MOVE YOUR PERSONAL PROPERTY OUT OF THE AREAS
THAT ARE KNOWN TO FLOOD.

IF YOU LIVE OR WORK IN AN AREA WHICH IS PRONE TO FLOODING...HAVE A
SAFE EVACUATION ROUTE TO USE IF FLOODING OCCURS. MAKE SURE EVERYONE
IN YOUR HOME OR OFFICE KNOWS WHERE TO GO IF FLOODING OCCURS.
HAVE A BATTERY OPERATED RADIO...AND SEVERAL WORKING FLASHLIGHTS
AVAILABLE. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE YOUR PROPERTY.

WHAT DOES A RIVER FLOOD WARNING MEAN?
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT RIVER LEVELS WILL EXCEED FLOOD
STAGE ON CERTAIN POINTS ALONG THE LARGER RIVERS...LIKE THE
DELAWARE...LEHIGH...RARITAN...AND PASSAIC RIVERS. RIVER FLOODS
TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP THAN FLASH FLOODING...SO THEY MAY NOT POSE
AS MUCH THREAT TO LIFE...BUT CAN TAKE A MUCH LARGER TOLL ON PROPERTY.

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO WHEN A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED?
IF YOU LIVE IN THE FLOOD PLAIN...BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF ORDERED
TO DO SO. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ALL NECESSARY ITEMS IN THE EVENT THAT
YOU
CANNOT RETURN HOME FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MAKE ARRANGEMENTS TO PROTECT
YOUR PROPERTY BY MOVING YOUR VALUABLES TO HIGHER GROUND...OR AN
UPPER LEVEL OF YOUR HOME. LISTEN FOR RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS THAT
PREDICT FLOODING. OBEY EVACUATION ORDERS FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODS...FLASH FLOODS...AND THE
"TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN" CAMPAIGN, PLEASE VISIT THE NWS FLOOD
AWARENESS WEBSITE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/floodsafety";>WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/FLOODSAFETY.

THE WEATHER SAFETY TOPIC FOR FRIDAY WILL BE...
SKYWARN SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS.

Day 3 - Flash Floods

Wed, 9 Mar 2005 17:32:05 GMT

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 AM EST WED MAR 9 2005

...PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK...

THIS IS THE THIRD OF A FIVE PART SERIES ON SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
WHICH WILL RUN EACH DAY DURING PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY'S
HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK. HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK
RUNS FROM MARCH 6TH THROUGH MARCH 12TH.

...FLASH FLOODS...

THE NUMBER ONE SEVERE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN THE UNITED STATES IS
FLOODING. MOST FLOOD-RELATED DEATHS ARE A RESULT OF BEING WASHED
AWAY WHILE TRYING TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY ON FOOT OR IN AN
AUTOMOBILE. CURRENTLY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ATTEMPTING
TO RAISE PUBLIC AWARENESS ON THE DANGERS OF FLOODS WITH ITS "TURN
AROUND DON'T DROWN" CAMPAIGN. WHETHER YOU ARE DRIVING OR
WALKING...IF YOU COME TO A FLOODED ROAD...TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN!!! YOU WILL NOT KNOW THE DEPTH OF THE WATER NOR WILL YOU KNOW
THE CONDITION OF THE ROAD UNDER THE WATER.

FLOODS THAT OCCUR ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITHIN SIX HOURS OF
THE CAUSATIVE EVENT ARE KNOWN AS FLASH FLOODS. CAUSATIVE EVENTS CAN
BE HEAVY RAIN...A DAM BREAK...OR AN ICE JAM FORMATION OR BREAK.
FLASH FLOODS ARE THE DEADLIEST OF ALL FLOODS AND ARE THE MOST
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN ADVANCE BECAUSE THEY ARE GENERALLY VERY
LOCALIZED. FOR THIS REASON...WARNING TIME FOR FLASH FLOODS CAN BE
VERY SHORT.

SEVERAL FACTORS CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH FLOODING. THE TWO KEY ELEMENTS
ARE RAINFALL INTENSITY AND DURATION. INTENSITY IS THE RATE OF
RAINFALL...AND DURATION IS HOW LONG THE RAIN PERSISTS. FLASH FLOODS
CAN ROLL BOULDERS...TEAR OUT TREES...DESTROY BUILDINGS AND
BRIDGES...AND SCOUR OUT NEW CHANNELS. RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN REACH
HEIGHTS OF 30 FEET OR MORE!!! IN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...FLASH
FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINS CAN ALSO TRIGGER CATASTROPHIC MUD SLIDES.
OFTEN FLASH FLOODING IS CAUSED BY SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS...THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREA...OR RAINS FROM HURRICANES OR TROPICAL STORMS. THESE EVENTS ARE
ALL WELL FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THUS WHEN
THESE INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT...YOUR SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE QUICK
ACTION SHOULD FLOODING BEGIN.

MANY FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR BECAUSE PEOPLE UNDERESTIMATE THE
POWER OF WATER. FOR EXAMPLE...ONLY 6 INCHES OF QUICKLY MOVING WATER
CAN EASILY KNOCK A PERSON OF THEIR FEET. ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER...AN
AMOUNT THAT SOME TIRES ARE EVENT LARGER THAN...CAN EASILY PICK UP
MOST VEHICLES AND MOVE THEM AT WILL.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JEANNE DUMPED 4 TO 9
INCHES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN JUST A FEW HOURS ON
SEPTEMBER 28, 2004. A PHILADELPHIA RESIDENT DROWNED WHEN SHE WAS
SWEPT OFF HER FEET WHILE WAITING FOR A BUS AS URBAN RUNOFF MOVED IN
HER DIRECTION. HEAVY RAIN FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IVAN
PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HILLY TERRAIN OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY
AND POCONO MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA ON SEPTEMBER 18, 2004 RESULTING
IN MASSIVE PROPERTY DAMAGE.

EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS, HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. SUCH WAS
THE CASE IN BURLINGTON COUNTY NEW JERSEY ON JULY 12, 2004 WHEN SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DUMPED UP TO 13 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 12
HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE RANCOCAS CREEK WATERSHED. MASSIVE FLOODING
ENSUED, AND APPROXIMATELY 44 DAMS WERE EITHER COMPROMISED OR
DESTROYED. PRESIDENT BUSH DECLARED PARTS OF BURLINGTON AND CAMDEN
COUNTIES A DISASTER AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS FLOODING.

...WHAT DOES A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEAN?
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS USUALLY ISSUED FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES AT A TIME. UNDER IDEAL
CONDITIONS, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED EVEN BEFORE HEAVY RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH PROVIDES SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS BY ALERTING RESIDENTS FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AND
THAT CONDITIONS NEED TO BE WATCHED.

...WHAT DOES A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEAN?
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED...OR THAT
FLOODING IS VERY PROBABLE BASED ON RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATED BY
NWS DOPPLER RADAR. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY TO GET OUT OF
THE DANGER AREA. NEVER DRIVE ACROSS BRIDGES COVERED WITH WATER OR
THROUGH WATER-COVERED ROADWAYS. BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL AT NIGHT WHEN
FLOODED AREAS ARE HARDER TO SEE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON FLASH FLOODS AND THE "TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN" CAMPAIGN, PLEASE VISIT THE NWS FLOOD AWARENESS WEBSITE AT
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/floodsafety";>WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/FLOODSAFETY.

Day 2 - Severe Thunderstorms

Tue, 8 Mar 2005 17:58:51 GMT

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
712 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

...PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK...

THIS IS THE SECOND OF A FIVE PART SERIES ON SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
WHICH WILL RUN EACH DAY DURING PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY'S
HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK. HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK
RUNS FROM MARCH 6TH THROUGH MARCH 12TH.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...

WHEN SOMEONE SAYS THUNDERSTORM, THE MOST COMMON THOUGHTS ARE OF
LIGHTNING AND THUNDER. THE SOUND OF THUNDER IS CAUSED BY
LIGHTNING...THUS IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ONE WITHOUT THE OTHER. THE
CHANNEL OF AIR THROUGH WHICH LIGHTNING TRAVELS IS HEATED TO A
TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 50,000 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...CAUSING THE AIR TO
EXPAND RAPIDLY. THIS RAPID EXPANSION OF AIR IS WHAT PRODUCES THE
SOUND OF THUNDER. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING...YOU WILL HEAR THUNDER AS
LONG AS YOU ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY. HENCE...THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS
HEAT LIGHTNING...THAT IS, LIGHTNING WHICH PRODUCES NO THUNDER. YOU
ARE JUST TOO FAR AWAY TO HEAR THE SOUND. SINCE LIGHT TRAVELS FASTER
THAN SOUND...YOU WILL OFTEN SEE LIGHTNING FIRST...THEN HEAR THUNDER
A FEW SECONDS LATER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH PRODUCES WIND GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND / OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
DIAMETER OR GREATER (THE SIZE OF A PENNY). WIND SPEEDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER CAN PRODUCE TREMENDOUS DAMAGE WHICH CAN BE MISINTERPRETED AS
TORNADIC IN NATURE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOES NOT USE
LIGHTNING TO QUALIFY THE SEVERITY OF A THUNDERSTORM.

WHEN ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. SUCH A WATCH CAN COVER A DOZEN OR MORE
COUNTIES...AND CAN BE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT A TIME. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WINDS AND / OR LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, BUT
THEY ARE NOT A CERTAINTY.

IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ISSUED...GO ABOUT YOUR NORMAL
ACTIVITIES...BUT WATCH THE SKY AROUND YOU FOR DEVELOPING STORMS.
PERIODICALLY CHECK NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. KNOW WHICH COUNTY YOU LIVE IN AND
WHICH ONES SURROUND YOUR COMMUNITY. IF YOU ARE ON VACATION...OR
DRIVING THROUGH AN UNFAMILIAR AREA...ATTEMPT TO LOCATE THE NAME OF
THE COUNTY YOU ARE IN. FIND OUT WHERE YOU ARE IN RELATION TO OTHER
TOWNS OR CITIES. PLAN HOW TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE QUICKLY IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...OR IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
WHEN DOPPLER RADAR...OR REAL-TIME OBSERVATIONS FROM EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS OR SKYWARN SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS...INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS IN PROGRESS OR ABOUT TO OCCUR. WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR ONE OR TWO COUNTIES AT A TIME...AND ARE USUALLY VALID FOR
AN HOUR OR LESS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH YOUR COUNTY. TAKE QUICK ACTION
TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

WHEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED...GET INSIDE YOUR
HOME...A STRONG BUILDING...OR IN YOUR CAR. IF THERE IS NO BUILDING
NEARBY...YOUR BEST PROTECTION IS A DITCH...BUT BE CAREFUL OF RISING
WATER. BOATERS SHOULD HEAD TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY...AND GOLFERS SHOULD
GET OFF THE COURSE IMMEDIATELY. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. DO
NOT USE ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND MAKE SURE SENSITIVE ELECTRONIC
EQUIPMENT IS SURGE PROTECTED. DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES. IF YOU
ARE DRIVING...PULL OVER TO THE SIDE OF THE ROAD UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES. HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN FLOOD ROADS
QUICKLY...SO NEVER TRY TO DRIVE THROUGH AN AREA WHERE WATER COVERS
THE ROAD.

DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOES NOT USE
LIGHTNING TO JUDGE THE SEVERITY OF A STORM...IT IS ONE OF THE MANY
DANGERS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ON AUGUST 17TH
2003...LIGHTNING STRUCK THE STEEPLE OF SAINT MARY'S CHURCH IN PERTH
AMBOY AND TOPPLED A LARGE CHUNK OF THE PILLAR THROUGH THE ROOF AND
DESTROYED PEWS AND THE CHURCH'S PIPE ORGAN. THE LIGHTNING BOLT
TRAVELED FROM THE STEEPLE THROUGH THE ROOF AND EXITED A STAINED GLASS
WINDOW WHICH MELTED. A FIVE FOOT LONG 1200 POUND CONCRETE PIECE OF
THE STEEPLE CRASHED THROUGH THE ROOF AND LANDED ON THE CHOIR LOFT AND
SMASHED A 40-YEAR-OLD ORGAN. A SECOND CHUNK PLUNGED THROUGH THE
ROOF...THE GROUND FLOOR...AND INTO THE BASEMENT WHERE IT DAMAGED
SEVERAL PEWS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...OR WEATHER IN
GENERAL...PLEASE VISIT THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ WEBSITE AT:
http://www.weather.gov/philadelphia";>http://www.weather.gov/philadelphia<;/a>

Day 1 - Tornadoes

Tue, 8 Mar 2005 17:57:36 GMT

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1023 AM EST MON MAR 7 2005

...PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK...

THIS IS THE FIRST OF A FIVE PART SERIES ON SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
WHICH WILL RUN EACH DAY DURING PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY'S
HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK. HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK
RUNS FROM MARCH 6TH THROUGH MARCH 12TH.

...TORNADOES...THE MOST VIOLENT STORMS ON EARTH...

IN AN AVERAGE YEAR...NEARLY 1000 TORNADOES ARE REPORTED NATIONWIDE
WITH 80 DEATHS AND OVER 1500 INJURIES. WORLDWIDE...THE UNITED STATES
RANKS NUMBER ONE IN THE HIGHEST OCCURRENCE OF THESE POWERFUL STORMS.
THE MOST VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE CAPABLE OF TREMENDOUS DESTRUCTION AS
WIND SPEEDS CAN EXCEED 250 MPH. EVEN THOUGH TORNADOES OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE EXTREMELY INFREQUENT IN THIS AREA, IT IS STILL
IMPORTANT TO KNOW TORNADO SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. EVEN A WEAK TORNADO
CAN CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DAMAGE!

THE FUJITA SCALE, WHICH RUNS FROM F0 TO F5, IS USED TO RATE TORNADO
STRENGTH. THE WEAKEST TORNADO IS RANKED AS AN F0 AND HAS ESTIMATED
WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 72 MPH. F5 IS THE STRONGEST RANKING RESERVED
FOR TORNADOES WITH WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 260 MPH. AGAIN...MOST
TORNADOES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY ARE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE REGION.
AN F3 TORNADO RIPPED THROUGH THE TOWN OF LYONS IN CENTRAL BERKS
COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA ON MAY 31,1998. HALF THE TOWN WAS
DESTROYED...BUT BECAUSE RESIDENTS RECEIVED AMPLE WARNING...AND
BECAUSE THEY TOOK APPROPRIATE ACTION...NO DEATHS OR SERIOUS INJURIES
OCCURRED FROM THIS EVENT. LESS THAN ONE PERCENT OF TORNADOES IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY REACH AN INTENSITY OF F4 OR
HIGHER. THE ONLY F5 TORNADO IN RECORDED PENNSYLVANIA HISTORY OCCURRED
ON MAY 31, 1985. NO F5 TORNADOES HAVE EVER BEEN RECORDED IN NEW
JERSEY HISTORY.

THE MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE OF TORNADOES IN THE REGION HAPPENED ON
JULY 27, 2004 AS AN F1 TORNADO MOVED THROUGH WOODLAND TOWNSHIP IN
BURLINGTON COUNTY, NEW JERSEY. THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO WAS 2.6 MILES
LONG AND 100 YARDS WIDE. TWO PEOPLE WERE INJURED AT THE NEW LISBON
DEVELOPMENT CENTER, WHERE 500,000 DOLLARS IN DAMAGE WAS ALSO
REPORTED.

ANOTHER WEAKER TORNADO, AN F0 ON THE FUJITA SCALE, MOVED THROUGH
CHERRY HILL NEW JERSEY ON SEPTEMBER 28, 2004. THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADO WAS 2.5 MILES LONG AND 50 FEET WIDE. NO ONE WAS INJURED IN
THIS TORNADO, BUT THERE WAS SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO STORES AND
BUSINESSES IN THE AREA, AND NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER POLES WERE
FELLED FROM THE STRONG WINDS.

THE MOST RECENT TORNADO FATALITY OCCURRED ON OCTOBER 27, 2003 WHEN A
WEAK F0 TORNADO MOVED THROUGH HAINESPORT, BURLINGTON COUNTY. A WOMAN
WAS KILLED BY A FLYING TREE LIMB AS SHE WAS WALKING TOWARD HER CAR.
THIS WAS THE FIRST TORNADO DEATH IN NEW JERSEY SINCE 1941.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. THE
FOLLOWING SAFETY TIPS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED IF EVER A TORNADO
APPROACHES YOUR AREA.

-WHEN AT HOME...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS...DOORS...AND OUTSIDE WALLS.
GO TO A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR PART OF THE HOUSE ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH SOMETHING STURDY FOR ADDED PROTECTION.

-IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LIE FLAT ON LOW GROUND AND SHIELD YOUR HEAD
WITH YOUR ARMS. WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

-IF IN A CAR OR TRUCK...DO NOT TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. LEAVE YOUR
VEHICLE AND TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING. IF NO BUILDING IS
AVAILABLE...LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE FOR LOWER GROUND AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

-MOBILE HOMES OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK STURDIER SHELTER. IF NO SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER IS
NEARBY...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR ON LOW GROUND.

-WHEN IN A PUBLIC BUILDING...MOVE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER AREA.
THESE ARE USUALLY IDENTIFIED IN SCHOOLS...HOSPITALS...AND OTHER
PUBLIC BUILDINGS. OTHERWISE...GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE. DO NOT TAKE SHELTER IN
GYMNASIUMS OR AUDITORIUMS. DUE TO THEIR NATURE, THE LARGE OPEN
EXPANSES OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION.

-LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AS OFTEN
AS POSSIBLE FOR UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. YOU SHOULD CONTINUE YOUR DAILY ROUTINE DURING
A TORNADO WATCH...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY. KEEP ABREAST OF
CURRENT WEATHER INFORMATION FOR YOUR AREA...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
QUICK ACTION IF NECESSARY.

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO HAS BEEN SIGHTED ON THE
GROUND OR IS INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR. WHEN A WARNING IS
ISSUED...MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. ALSO REMEMBER THAT
TORNADOES OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH OR WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

Special Turkey Day Weather Alert

Mon, 22 Nov 2004 21:45:25 GMT

Turkeys will thaw in the morning, and then warm in the oven to an afternoon high near 190 degrees.
The kitchen will turn hot and humid. If you bother the cook, be ready for a severe squall or a cold shoulder.
During the late afternoon and evening, the cold front of a knife will slice through the turkey,
causing an accumulation of one to two inches on plates. Mashed potatoes will drift across one side, while
cranberry sauce creates slippery spots on the other. A weight watch and indigestion warning have been
issued for the entire area, with increased stuffiness around the beltway. During the evening, the turkey will
diminish and taper off to leftovers, dropping to a low of 34 degrees in the refrigerator. Looking ahead to
Friday and Saturday, high pressure to eat sandwiches will be established. Flurries of leftovers can be
expected both days with a 50 percent chance of scattered soup late in the day. We expect a warming
trend where soup develops. By early next week, eating pressure will be low as the only wish left will be
the bone.

The New Wind Chill Formula

Fri, 12 Nov 2004 17:09:04 GMT

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
840 AM EST FRI NOV 12 2004

...WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION WEEK IN PENNSYLVANIA...

TODAY'S TOPIC IS THE WIND CHILL FORMULA

LAST YEAR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BEGAN USING A NEW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURE INDEX, DESIGNED TO CALCULATE A MORE ACCURATE READING OF
HOW THE COLD AIR FEELS ON THE HUMAN SKIN.

SINCE 1945, THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA HAVE USED AN INDEX, WHICH
RELIED ON OBSERVED WINDS 33 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND, AND FOCUSED ON
HOW FAST THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WINDS MADE WATER
FREEZE. THE NEW INDEX ACCOUNTS FOR THE WIND EFFECTS AT FACE LEVEL,
AND A BETTER CALCULATION FOR BODY HEAT LOSS. FOR EXAMPLE, UNDER THE
OLD INDEX SYSTEM, A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES, WITH A 15 MPH WIND,
TRANSLATED INTO A READING OF FIVE DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE NEW INDEX
CALCULATION WOULD TRANSLATE THE SAME CONDITIONS TO SIX DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO.

THE NEW INDEX IS BASED ON:
- WIND SPEED CALCULATED AT THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE
HUMAN FACE, ABOUT FIVE FEET (THE HUMAN FACE IS MOST
OFTEN EXPOSED TO THE COLD).
- UPDATED HEAT TRANSFER THEORY, WHICH FACTORS HEAT LOSS
FROM THE BODY TO ITS SURROUNDINGS DURING COLD, WINDY
DAYS.
- A CONSISTENT STANDARD FOR SKIN TISSUE RESISTANCE.
- CLEAR NIGHT SKY CONDITIONS.
- A LOWERED CALM WIND THRESHOLD FROM FOUR MILES TO THREE
MILES PER HOUR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON WINTER WEATHER SAFETY...CONTACT JOE
MIKETTA WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ AT
609-261-6600 X 223 OR VISIT THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY HOMEPAGE AT:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/phi";>HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI

FrostBite & Hypothermia

Wed, 10 Nov 2004 21:18:47 GMT

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
700 AM EST THU NOV 11 2004

...WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK IN PENNSYLVANIA...

FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA

VERY COLD WEATHER CAN BE A HEALTH HAZARD. HOWEVER BY DRESSING
PROPERLY...YOU CAN SAFELY SPEND TIME OUTDOORS ENJOYING WHAT THE AREA
HAS TO OFFER IN THE FORM OF WINTER RECREATION...WHETHER IT BE
SKIING...SNOWMOBILING...ICE SKATING...OR JUST TAKING IN THE WINTER
SCENERY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN ROB YOUR BODY OF LIFE SUSTAINING WARMTH...
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG WIND. THE COMBINATION OF
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND IS KNOWN AS THE WIND CHILL. THE WIND
CHILL IS BASED ON THE RATE OF HEAT LOSS FROM EXPOSED SKIN. AS THE
WIND SPEED INCREASES...THE RATE OF HEAT LOSS FROM YOUR BODY ALSO
INCREASES. A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO WITH A LIGHT WIND
CAN FEEL LIKE A BITTER COLD 6 DEGREES WHEN THE WIND BLOWS AT 15
MILES AN HOUR.

FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR WHEN YOUR FINGERS...CHEEKS...EARS...TOES...OR
EVEN THE TIP OF YOUR NOSE ARE EXPOSED TO SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. IF ANY PORTION OF YOUR BODY BECOMES
NUMB DUE TO THE COLD...GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND SLOWLY WARM THE
AFFECTED AREA TO AVOID TISSUE OR NERVE DAMAGE.

HYPOTHERMIA IS POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE DANGEROUS. THIS HEALTH HAZARD
IS DEFINED AS THE LOWERING OF THE BODY TEMPERATURE BELOW 95
DEGREES. WARNING SIGNS OF HYPOTHERMIA INCLUDE UNCONTROLLABLE
SHIVERING...MEMORY LOSS...SLURRED SPEECH...AND DISORIENTATION. IF
NOT TREATED IMMEDIATELY BY KEEPING THE PERSON WARM AND SEEKING
MEDICAL HELP...HYPOTHERMIA CAN BE FATAL.

HYPOTHERMIA CAN AFFECT ANYONE...BUT THE ELDERLY ARE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE. OVER HALF THE FATALITIES DUE TO EXPOSURE FROM THE COLD
OCCUR TO PEOPLE OVER 60 YEARS OF AGE. YOUNG CHILDREN ARE ALSO
SUSCEPTIBLE.

BE SURE TO DRESS PROPERLY FOR THE COLD. ALWAYS WEAR SEVERAL LAYERS
OF WARM...LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING. THESE LAYERS HELP TO RETAIN YOUR
BODY HEAT BETTER THAN ONE HEAVY LAYER...AND THEY CAN BE REMOVED TO
AVOID PERSPIRATION AND SUBSEQUENT CHILL. THE OUTER LAYER OF CLOTHES
SHOULD ALSO BE WATER REPELLENT.

DON'T FORGET TO WEAR A HAT SINCE A SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF BODY HEAT
OCCURS THROUGH YOUR HEAD. ALSO...MITTENS ARE BETTER THAN GLOVES AT
PROTECTING YOUR FINGERS FROM THE EXTREME COLD.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND WINTER WEATHER SAFETY
TIPS...CHECK OUT THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY INTERNET WEB SITE AT:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/phi";>HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI

Nor'Easters!

Wed, 10 Nov 2004 21:13:50 GMT

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 AM EST WED NOV 10 2004

...WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK IN PENNSYLVANIA...

TODAY'S TOPIC IS COASTAL WINTER STORMS OR NOR'EASTERS

REMEMBER THE BLIZZARD OF 1993? HOW ABOUT THE HEAVY SNOWS OF JANUARY
1996? HOW ABOUT THE PRESIDENT'S DAY STORM IN FEBRUARY 2003? THESE
TYPES OF STORMS...ALSO KNOWN AS NOR'EASTERS...CAN FORM ANYTIME FROM
OCTOBER THROUGH APRIL. HOWEVER...THEY ARE MOST COMMON DURING THE
WINTER MONTHS AND CAN BRING A WIDE VARITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH THEM.

ALTHOUGH NOR'EASTERS CAN FORM ANYWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING
THE COOL SEASON OF THE YEAR...THESE STORMS TEND TO FORM IN TWO MAIN
LOCATIONS. THE FIRST IS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE SECOND
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS BECAUSE THE SURFACE OCEAN WATER
IN THESE AREAS STAYS RELATIVELY WARM THROUGHOUT THE YEAR AND THE
WARMER WATER ACTS AS FUEL FOR THE DEVELOPING STORMS.

COASTAL STORMS BRING WITH THEM A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A TYPICAL NOR EASTER CAN PRODUCE HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS LIKE NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW WHICH USUALLY CHANGES TO RAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS THAT PULL WARMER AIR ONSHORE FROM
THE OCEAN.

THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK THAT COASTAL STORMS TAKE AFTER THEY
FORM IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE IMPACT THE STORM WILL HAVE ON A
LOCATION. ADVANCES IN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COMPUTER MODELS
COMBINED WITH A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROCESSES THAT FORM
COASTAL STORMS...HAVE LED TO BETTER FORECASTS. HOWEVER...SINCE DATA
REMAINS SCARCE OVER THE OCEAN WHERE MOST NOR'EASTERS FORM...THERE
WILL ALWAYS BE SOME UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTION OF
THESE COASTAL STORMS.

IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL THIS WINTER...BE SURE TO LISTEN TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS. THERE IS NO BETTER WAY TO KEEP AHEAD OF A WINTER STORM
THAN NOAA WEATHER RADIO...A SMALL RECEIVER DEVICE THAT CAN BE
PURCHASED AT MANY ELECTRONIC STORES. AS "THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE"...IT PROVIDES CONTINUOUS BROADCASTS OF THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT
HOLLY. WEATHER RADIOS COME IN MANY DIFFERENT SIZES...WITH A VARIETY
OF FUNCTIONS AND COSTS. ALARM FEATURES ARE AVAILABLE ON NOAA WEATHER
RADIOS WHICH CAN ALERT YOU TO HAZARDOUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
WEATHER. A NOAA WEATHER RADIO MAKES A USEFUL...POTENTIALLY
LIFE-SAVING GIFT IDEA FOR THE HOLIDAY SEASON.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND TIPS ON WINTER WEATHER
SAFETY...CHECK OUT THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY HOMEPAGE AT:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/phi";>HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI

Winter Weather Advisories/Watches/Warnings...

Wed, 10 Nov 2004 00:38:16 GMT

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0740 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2004

...WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK IN PENNSYLVANIA...

TODAY'S TOPIC COVERS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...
WATCHES...AND WARNINGS.

IN GENERAL...ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT ARE HAZARDOUS...BUT GENERALLY...IF CAUTION IS
EXERCISED...THESE SITUATIONS SHOULD NOT BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING SCENARIOS IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

1) WHEN AT LEAST 3 BUT LESS THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A
12 HOUR PERIOD OR LESS (AT LEAST 2 BUT LESS THAN 4 INCHES IN
PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE COUNTIES).

2) FOR A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

3) FOR A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE

4) FOR A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE COMBINATION OF COLD AND
WIND BRINGS WIND CHILLS DOWN TO BETWEEN -15F AND -25F (-10F AND -25F
IN THE PHILADELHIA METROPOLITAN AREA). EXPOSURE TO THIS MAGNITUDE OF
COLD AND WIND CAN BE DANGEROUS OR EVEN LIFE-THREATENING IF THE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED REGARDLESS OF THEIR DURATION.
WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER
LINES AND HAMPER TRAVEL.

IN GENERAL...WATCHES FOR WINTER WEATHER ARE USUALLY ISSUED 24 TO 72
HOURS BEFORE THE START OF THE WEATHER EVENT. WATCHES ARE INTENDED
TO GIVE RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SUFFICIENT TIME
TO PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE OR
MORE OF THE FOLLOWING ELEMENTS TO OCCUR:

1) 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN 12 HOURS OR 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
IN 24 HOURS (4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN 12 HOURS OR 6 INCHES OR
MORE OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS IN DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES).

2) A DANGEROUS ICE STORM (LARGE ENOUGH ICE ACCUMULATION TO DOWN
TREES AND/OR POWER LINES)

3) A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

A BLIZZARD WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WINDS
GREATER THAN 35 MPH...COMBINED WITH HEAVY FALLING OR BLOWING SNOW
GREATLY REDUCING THE VISIBILITY 24 TO 72 HOURS IN THE FUTURE.
BLIZZARDS ARE THE MOST DANGEROUS WINTER STORMS AND ARE ESPECIALLY
SEVERE WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. A BLIZZARD WATCH
MEANS THAT TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 57 MPH.

IN GENERAL...WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS ARE ISSUED UP TO 12 OR 24 HOURS
PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT. TRAVEL SHOULD BE KEPT TO A
MINIMUM AND IS NOT RECOMMENDED UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. A WARNING
MEANS THAT DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING WEATHER IS
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING:

1) FOR A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW.

2) WHEN 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN 12 HOURS OR
8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS (4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN 12
HOURS OR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS IN DELAWARE AND
PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES).

3) WHEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO ACCUMULATE ON POWER LINES AND BRANCHES AND
PROBABLY CAUSE THEM TO FALL.

4) WHEN HEAVY SNOW COMBINES WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
THAN 35 MPH...COMBINED WITH HEAVY FALLING OR BLOWING SNOW GREATLY
REDUCING THE VISIBILITY. BLIZZARDS ARE THE MOST DANGEROUS WINTER
STORMS AND ARE ESPECIALLY SEVERE WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS THAT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
LIFE THREATENING AND THAT YOU MUST NOT TRAVEL UNLESS IT IS AN
EMERGENCY.

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF
LESS THAN -25F ARE EXPECTED. EXPOSURE TO THIS MAGNITUDE OF COLD AND
WIND WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED REGARDLESS OF THEIR DURATION.
THESE WIND SPEEDS CAN DOWN POWER LINES AND TREES AND CAUSE
UNFASTENED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.

KEEP AHEAD OF WINTER STORMS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS. ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE
BROADCAST IMMEDIATELY OVER NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND TIPS ON WINTER WEATHER SAFETY
CHECK OUT THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY HOMEPAGE AT:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/phi";>HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI

Winter Outlook 2004-2005 Issued

Wed, 10 Nov 2004 00:35:30 GMT

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/www_images/winter_outlook_banner.gif";>
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2326.htm";>The Winter Outlook for 2004-2005 was issued by NOAA on 10/06/2004.
Next Update will be Thursday, October 21st.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2326.htm";>http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/winteroutlook2004-05b-precip.jpg";>
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/winteroutlook2004-05b-temp.jpg";>

Winter Outlook 2004-2005 Updated

Wed, 10 Nov 2004 00:34:07 GMT

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/www_images/winter_outlook_banner.gif";>
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2332.htm";>The Winter Outlook for 2004-2005 was updated by NOAA on 10/21/2004.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2332.htm";>http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/winteroutlook2004-05-precip-update2.jpg";>
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/winteroutlook2004-05-temp-update2.jpg";>

Winter Weather Awareness Week...

Wed, 10 Nov 2004 00:32:32 GMT

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
830 AM EST MON NOV 8 2004

...NOVEMBER 7TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 12TH
MARKS WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK IN PENNSYLVANIA...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER OF 2004-2005 WAS RECENTLY RELEASED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. FOR EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL WINTER
TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA RANGE FROM DAILY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...TO DAILY MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. AVERAGE SNOWFALL
RANGES BETWEEN 20 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA NEAR
PHILADELPHIA...TO AROUND 40 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.

SINCE THE WINTER SEASON IS APPROACHING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE URGES YOU AND YOUR FAMILY TO PREPARE NOW FOR THE WINTER
WEATHER AHEAD. BELOW ARE SOME WINTER WEATHER SAFETY TIPS PROVIDED BY
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOUNT HOLLY.

IF YOU KNOW THE PROPER STEPS TO PREPARE FOR
BLIZZARDS...FROSTBITE...WIND CHILL...AND OTHER WINTER HAZARDS...YOU
CAN REDUCE SOME OF THE PROBLEMS CAUSED BY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER.
PROPER PREPARATION CAN REDUCE THE RISK TO YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES.
REMEMBER...SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CAN INJURE OR KILL.

WINTER STORMS ARE DECEPTIVE KILLERS BECAUSE MOST DEATHS CAUSED
DURING HARSH WINTER STORMS ARE FREQUENTLY INDIRECTLY RELATED TO THE
STORM. APPROXIMATELY SEVENTY /70/ PERCENT OF THE FATALITIES RELATED
TO ICE AND SNOW OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS...AND NEARLY
TWENTY-FIVE /25/ PERCENT OF WINTER-RELATED FATALITIES ARE PEOPLE
THAT ARE CAUGHT...UNPREPARED...OUT IN A STORM.

MANY FATALITIES CAN BE AVOIDED IF CERTAIN SIMPLE PRECAUTIONS ARE
TAKEN. THESE INCLUDE...STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD...OR
SIMPLY TAKING TIME TO CONSIDER THE CONDITIONS BEFORE GOING OUT IN
HARSH WEATHER.

MANY PREPAREDNESS MEASURES ARE THE SAME FOR WINTER
SNOWSTORMS...BLIZZARDS...AND DEEP FREEZES. THEY INCLUDE HAVING
PROVISIONS TO GET BY WITHOUT HELP FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND PLANS TO
COOPERATE WITH NEIGHBORS OR EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. IT IS ALSO
IMPORTANT TO KEEP HOME HEATING OIL AND VEHICLE FUEL TANKS FULL TO
AVOID BECOMING ISOLATED WITHOUT HEAT WHEN WINTER STORMS MOVE IN
SWIFTLY.

EVERY CAR OR TRUCK SHOULD BE OUTFITTED WITH A WINTER WEATHER KIT
THAT INCLUDES BLANKETS OR SLEEPING BAGS...A
FLASHLIGHT...HIGH-CALORIE NON-PERISHABLE FOOD...EXTRA CLOTHING...A
SHOVEL...A SAC OF SAND OR CAT LITTER...BOOSTER CABLES...AND MAPS.

PEOPLE SHOULD ALSO STAY INFORMED ABOUT POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER. IN ADDITION TO WEATHER REPORTS THAT ARE AVAILABLE ON
COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION...PEOPLE CAN QUICKLY GET THE
UP-TO-THE-MINUTE FORECASTS AND WINTER WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS
OVER NOAA WEATHER RADIO. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OPERATES OVER
500 OF THESE STATIONS NATIONWIDE.

WEATHER RADIO BROADCASTS CAN BE HEARD ON THE FOLLOWING
FREQUENCIES...162.400 MHZ...162.425 MHZ...162.450 MHZ...162.475 MHZ (PHILLY'S)
162.500 MHZ...162.525 MHZ OR 162.550 MHZ. MANY SCANNERS
AND SPECIAL RADIOS SOLD AT MOST ELECTRONICS STORES CAN PICK UP THE
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FREQUENCIES...AND SOME RADIOS CAN SOUND AN ALARM
AND WARN PEOPLE WHEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH OR WARNING.

NOTE TO EDITORS...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON WINTER WEATHER
PREPAREDNESS PLEASE VISIT THE NWS WEB SITE AT...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winter/index.shtml";>HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/WINTER/INDEX.SHTML

ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER SAFETY TIPS CAN BE FOUND ON THE NWS
MOUNT HOLLY HOME PAGE AT:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/phi";>HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI